Will Saffron And Red Tango In God’s Own Land?

Historically, the LDF has accused the BJP-led central government of “fiscal discrimination", making this rare show of cordiality notable. The meeting follows Vijayan’s visit last year to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi at his residence, where he sought support for infrastructure projects, signalling a pragmatic shift in the CPM’s approach towards the Centre.

Recent times have also seen a discernible moderation in mutual criticism. While Vijayan remains vocal against the BJP nationally, his attacks on the Modi government’s policies in Kerala have been conspicuously muted. Notably, Kerala adopted the National Education Policy’s three-language formula without the vehement opposition seen in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, despite resisting Hindi imposition. This contrasts with the CPM’s earlier stance, when even minor central interventions were labelled as “authoritarian overreach".

The BJP, too, has tempered its rhetoric. Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s remark last year that “Kerala’s governance model has merits" marked a departure from previous BJP campaigns that painted the LDF as “anti-development". This détente aligns with the Congress’s repeated allegations of a “secret pact" between the two parties. The Congress often cites past instances like CPM leader EP Jayarajan’s meetings with BJP’s Prakash Javadekar just before the last round of elections.

For the BJP, a potential third consecutive term for Pinarayi presents some strategic political advantages. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), out of power since 2016, faces an existential threat. As Shashi Tharoor noted in 2019, Kerala was the only state where Congress prevented a “BJP tsunami". However, two consecutive losses have eroded its base. A 2024 study by the Centre for Development Studies suggests that a three-term incumbency could permanently fragment the UDF. The survey even showed that up to a fifth of the Congress’ traditional voters were open to switching allegiance if the party fails in 2026.

The BJP recognises that Kerala’s upper-caste Nair voters, who constitute about 18 per cent of the population and sections of the Christian community who also make up another 18 per cent — both of whom are traditional UDF vote banks — are more amenable to the BJP. The two other major voting blocs, like the Ezhavas and the Muslims who make up a quarter of the voting population each, are much harder for the BJP to breach. So, if the BJP has to grow in Kerala, it has to be at the cost of the Congress, and not so much the CPM. By tacitly backing the LDF and Pinarayi to return for a third term, the BJP could accelerate the Congress’s decline, creating space for itself. A weakened Congress benefits the BJP nationally, too, as Kerala accounts for a fifth of all of the party’s 99 Lok Sabha seats.

So, how does this strategy work out for both parties, the CPM and the BJP? For the CPM, this would give massive financial leverage with the Centre. With Kerala’s debt-to-GSDP ratio hitting almost 40 per cent in 2024-25, securing central funds is critical. The state requires Rs 8,000 crore for flood rehabilitation alone. It will also lead to an anti-Congress consolidation.

A 2025 CSDS survey found 34 per cent of Keralites view the BJP as the “main opposition" as opposed to only 29 per cent for Congress. This suggests that a larger number of the Kerala electorate are seeing the BJP as the principal opposition, even though the saffron party has zero MLAs in the current assembly. It also suggests that many of these voters, who are traditional Congress voters, are splitting towards the BJP. By keeping the BJP politically active but contained, the LDF avoids a direct challenge from a resurgent Congress.

And for the BJP, Kerala becomes a gateway to the South, after it managed to open its account in Karnataka. Kerala represents the last southern frontier for the BJP’s expansion. A 2024 internal report of the BJP identified a dozen winnable seats, like Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur, where traditional Congress voters, if they migrated to the BJP, would actually tip the scales. Softening CPM resistance also allows BJP-affiliated groups like the RSS to expand their activities in the state. Sangh Parivar organisations have launched 37 new schools and 14 cultural centres in Kerala since 2023, primarily in UDF strongholds. The Sangh runs the maximum number of ‘shakhas’ in Kerala, but the BJP has not been able to capitalise on this.

The Congress faces a catch-22. Accusing the LDF-BJP of collusion — as MP Shafi Parambil did recently — risks alienating minority voters who view the BJP as the greater evil. Yet, staying silent allows the narrative to fester; something the Congress can ill-afford. The party’s 2024 decision to be the fulcrum of the INDIA bloc nationally while fighting the LDF locally has created strategic confusion, both for its workers and its voters. The Congress is also a house divided with various camps owing allegiance to different satraps between KC Venugopal, VD Satheesan and K Sudhakaran. And now, Thiruvananthapuram MP Shashi Tharoor has also thrown his hat in the ring.

This isn’t Kerala’s first experiment with unlikely alliances. In 1969-70, the CPM tacitly supported the Congress breakaway faction to block the ideological mothership CPI. Ten years later, the CPI returned the favour by backing the Congress. But since the early 80s, politics in Kerala has oscillated between the Congress-led UDF and CPM-led LDF. However, contemporary dynamics differ due to the emergence of the BJP.

The bigger fear for the CPM for its dalliance with the BJP is minority backlash, particularly among Muslims, which could lead them to abandon the LDF if it is perceived as BJP-friendly. The Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) already gained 9 per cent vote share in the last local body polls, indicating this risk.

The chessboard is set. As Vijayan’s government walks the tightrope between fiscal pragmatism and ideological purity, Kerala’s political future may hinge on whether this undeclared entente between red and saffron evolves into a rainbow realignment — or collapses under its own contradictions. For now, the breakfast in Delhi has given both sides much to digest.