India's Q3 GDP Data To Be Out On Friday: Know What Analysts Expect, What To Watch Out For

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Last Updated:February 26, 2025, 13:52 IST

India's Q3 GDP Data: Analysts say the country's GDP growth has likely rebounded to 6.3 per cent on the back of higher government spending.

India's Q3 GDP data will be released on Friday.

GDP Data Release Date: India’s GDP growth data for the October-December 2024 (Q3 FY25) quarter is slated to be released at 4 pm on Friday (February 28). According to analysts, the country’s GDP growth has likely rebounded to 6.3 per cent in Q3 FY25 on the back of higher government spending. Analysts have given a range of GDP growth estimate between 5.8 per cent and 6.5 per cent.

India Ratings has given the highest GDP growth projection of 6.5 per cent for Q3 FY25, while Nomura has given the lowest at 5.8 per cent. Among other estimates, Bank of Baroda and State Bank of India expect India’s economy to expand at 6.4 per cent and 6.2-6.3 per cent, respectively. Rating agency ICRA has given a GDP growth forecast of 6.4 per cent.

Aditi Nayar, chief economist and head (research & outreach) at ICRA, said India’s economic performance in Q3 FY2025 benefitted from a sharp ramp-up in aggregate government spending (Centre + state) on capital and revenue expenditure, high growth in services exports, a turnaround in merchandise exports, healthy output of major kharif crops etc., which would have buffered rural sentiment. Some consumer-focussed sectors saw a pick-up during the festive season, even as urban consumer sentiment dipped slightly, and other sectors such as mining and electricity saw an improvement after weather-related challenges in the previous quarter.

Paras Jasrai, senior analyst at India Ratings & Research, said, “The capital goods output firmed up to a year’s high of 7.3 per cent yoy in 3QFY25. This along with a pickup in government spending would help in lifting up the GDP growth to 6.5 per cent in 3QFY25."

The Reuters’ Poll

According to a Reuters poll of 53 economists conducted February 17-24, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) in Asia’s third-largest economy was expected to have grown an annual 6.3% in the October-December quarter, up from a near two-year low of 5.4% in the previous quarter.

A national election in April-June last year forced the government to curb infrastructure spending, a key driver of economic expansion in recent years in what is still the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

That dragged growth down to 5.4% in July-September, well below the 8.2% average last fiscal year. Since then, foreign investors have withdrawn billions of dollars from the equity market.

However, according to Reuters, government expenditure likely rose in double digits during the last three months of 2024, suggesting an expected rebound in economic growth is more policy-driven than broad-based.

It, however, added that gousehold consumption, which typically surges during the festive season from October to December, likely remained relatively sluggish.

Q3 FY25 GDP: Things To Watch Out For

Consumption: Private final consumption expenditure is the largest component accounting for about 60 per cent of the GDP. Its movement has a huge weightage on the entire GDP number.

Investment and Infrastructure: Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is an indicator of investment activity in the country. A growth in GFCF indicates a jump in investment in the country.

Agriculture Growth: Agriculture is the sector that remained resilient during the pandemic period. It provided positive growth when all other sectors posted negative growth during the lockdown.

Manufacturing Growth/ Industrial Sector: Manufacturing growth was hit majorly first during the coronavirus pandemic and then due to the Russia-Ukraine war that led to supply disruptions, which increased commodity prices and thus input costs for companies.