Three Years Of Taliban Takeover In Afghanistan: A Look At Economy, Human Rights & Terrorism
Although the Taliban have improved on some economic indicators such as exports, but attacks, including those claimed by Islamic State radicals, continue in urban areas
The Taliban have completed three years of taking over Afghanistan, and the political and economic conditions in the country have gone worse. The regime under supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzada has set up policies, with some privileges reserved for southern Pashtun Talibs while more than 90% of Afghans struggle with poverty and food insecurity.
“The system is Islamic and sharia-based, sharia is being implemented," said Haibatullah Akhundzada, in a speech shared by the administration spokesman late on Wednesday.
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“As long as we are alive, we will uphold and apply Allah’s (God’s) faith and sharia upon ourselves and others," he said.
The Taliban carried out a military parade a day before the anniversary on Wednesday, including marches by its security forces showcasing tanks and weapons at Bagram, once the largest military base of the US-led coalition. Much of the equipment was once held by the Afghan military and provided by foreign forces, but seized by the Taliban after they took over.
Let us understand the state of affairs in Afghanistan through political, social, regional and economic parameters.
Taliban Leadership and Human Rights
Haibatullah is supported by a praetorian guard of powerful military commanders from Helmand and Kandahar, such as Abdul Qayyum Zakir.
The Taliban regime does not integrate with the power structure that Afghan politicians, warlords and individuals associated with the defeated Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. It has removed from office or demoted several non-Pashtun Taliban commanders.
Although the Taliban have improved on some economic indicators such as exports, but attacks, including those claimed by Islamic State radicals, continue in urban areas.
But a huge cut in development funding and restrictions on the banking sector led by Washington have contributed to the country’s massive humanitarian crisis with more than half of the population in need of aid to survive, as per a report by Reuters.
Girls above the age of around 12 are barred from formal education, women are not usually allowed to travel long distances without a male guardian and have been banned from visiting gyms and parks.
The Taliban say they respect women’s rights in accordance with their interpretation of Afghan culture and Islamic law.
Civil servants keep the country running and are more likely to have a formal or technical education. But the Taliban leading civilian institutions have no proper knowledge of how such institutions are run.
Economic Viability of Afghanistan
The economy has weakened, with foreign aid made up around 30% of the country’s GDP in 2023.
The UN has flown in at least $3.8 billion to fund international aid organisations during the past three years. The US remains the largest donor, sending more than $3 billion in assistance since the Taliban takeover. But the US watchdog assigned to follow the money says a lot is taxed or diverted.
The Taliban also apply vigorous taxation as they don’t have any other means to stimulate the economy. They collected around $2.96 billion in taxes in 2023.
Also, the central bank cannot print money. Cash is printed abroad. Interest transactions are banned because interest is forbidden in Islam, and banks don’t lend. The Taliban can’t borrow money because they’re not recognised as the government, and international banking is cut off.
Haibatullah’s ban on opium poppy brought cultivation down by over 95%. But it further impoverished Afghans, wiping out 450,000 jobs at the farm level alone. The ban cost the Afghan economy at least $1.3 billion, as per a Brookings report.
In 2023, Afghanistan benefited from regional trade, including coal exports to Pakistan and exports of minerals across the region, amounting to $1.9 billion in Afghan exports. But in 2024, exports shrank substantially.
How It Is Preventing Terrorism
The Taliban has long worked towards preventing attacks out of the country but not the presence of foreign fighters and terrorist groups in Afghanistan.
Foreign fighters are heading to Afghanistan, and madrassas are producing radicalized students. Iran is recruiting fighters for its “axis of resistance" operations from Afghan refugees in Iran, according to the Brookings report.
Last year, a UN expert panel on Afghanistan produced an alarming report, predicting the reconstitution of al-Qaida’s capability in Afghanistan and a possibility of global terrorist attacks. The US intelligence, however, disagreed.
Russia also has not blamed the Taliban for failing to prevent the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall in March 2024, finding the ISKP planned it in Central Asia.
In Pakistan, the Taliban has stopped countering the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), who are connected by familial ties to Haqqanis. The TTP attacks in Pakistan have increased casualties and threatened China’s economic prospects in Islamabad. Though Taliban negotiations brought temporary halt to TTP attacks, Pakistan expelled Afghan refugees from its country.
Reaching Out to West Asia
According to a report by Observer Research Foundation (ORF), the Taliban has made significant strides into brokering deals with West Asia through diplomacy, economic engagements and infrastructure projects.
The conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East have compelled the Central Asian Republics to adopt a conciliatory approach towards the Taliban-led Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA).
Uzbekistan was one of the first countries in Central Asia to establish direct ties with the Taliban. The bilateral trade figures between two countries reached over $461.4 million in the first six months of 2024.
In May 2024, both countries underscored their commitment to completing the $ 4.8 billion Trans-Afghanistan Railway project, connecting Uzbekistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan.
In April 2024, a Kazakh delegation visited Kabul for the third Kazakhstan-Afghanistan Business Forum to forge closer trade ties. The latest trade figures between the two countries have reached a high of $ 987.9 million.
In 2023, Tajikistan supplied 1.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity to Afghanistan.
(with inputs from Reuters and AP)
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