Opinion | BJP’s Bihar Strategy: A Calculated Gamble With Nitish Kumar

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Last Updated:February 21, 2025, 11:47 IST

The decision to contest under Nitish Kumar’s leadership is a tactical move to maintain regional stability and strengthen the alliance at the Centre

Even if the BJP wins more seats than the JDU, its leadership is prepared to let Nitish Kumar continue as CM. (PTI Photo)

After a resounding success in the Delhi Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is now gearing up for the Bihar Assembly elections slated for October-November 2025. A crucial part of this preparation is Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s visit to Delhi, where he is expected to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and BJP President JP Nadda. The primary agenda of this meeting revolves around election strategy, seat-sharing agreements, and maintaining political stability within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

IMPORTANCE OF NITISH KUMAR IN BJP’S BIHAR STRATEGY

BJP’s decision to contest the Bihar elections with Nitish Kumar as its chief ministerial face is a strategic shift from its earlier stance of not declaring a CM candidate in advance. Given Nitish’s history of shifting alliances, the BJP wants to ensure his continued commitment to the NDA. With Nitish’s Janata Dal-United (JDU) holding 12 Lok Sabha seats, his political importance cannot be ignored, especially at a time when the BJP aims to maintain its majority at the Centre.

The move also serves to portray a united NDA front, countering the Opposition’s claims that their alliance is disjointed. Unlike the INDIA Bloc, where parties are contesting some seats separately, the BJP wants to send a strong message of cohesion by contesting under a single leadership in Bihar.

MAHARASHTRA FORMULA REJECTED FOR BIHAR

One of the most interesting aspects of BJP’s Bihar strategy is the rejection of the “Maharashtra formula," wherein the party with the most seats gets to stake claim to the chief minister’s post. In Bihar, the BJP has pre-emptively announced that regardless of the election outcome, Nitish will retain the chief minister’s position. This is a calculated move to prevent any post-election uncertainty or betrayal, a lesson the BJP learned from previous experiences in Maharashtra and Karnataka.

BJP’S LONG-TERM VISION FOR BIHAR

From a broader perspective, the BJP seems to be prioritising stability at the Centre over immediate political gains in Bihar. Even if the party wins more seats than the JDU, its leadership is prepared to let Nitish Kumar continue as CM. This is because the BJP recognises the importance of regional parties in state politics and understands that Nitish Kumar’s influence, especially among the Kurmi and extremely backward caste (EBC) voters, is instrumental in securing a comfortable win for the NDA.

CASTE EQUATIONS AND POLITICAL REALITIES

Bihar’s political landscape is heavily influenced by caste equations, and the BJP’s traditional voter base consists primarily of upper castes. By allying with JDU, which has a stronghold over EBCs and some Muslim voters, the BJP aims to consolidate a broader voter base. Nitish Kumar’s leadership provides an opportunity to break into RJD’s OBC vote bank while maintaining BJP’s appeal among forward castes.

Moreover, the political battle in Bihar will largely be between the RJD-Congress-Left Mahagathbandhan and the BJP-JDU-LJP (Paswan) alliance. With Lalu Prasad Yadav keen on securing the chief minister’s post for his son Tejashwi Yadav, the RJD is expected to make an aggressive push in the elections. However, the BJP is banking on Nitish’s credibility to counter RJD’s influence and appeal to the electorate as a stable alternative.

INDIA BLOC’S DILEMMA IN BIHAR

The recent Delhi Assembly election results have served as a wake-up call for the INDIA Bloc. The Congress party’s failure to win even a single seat in Delhi has raised concerns within the RJD regarding seat-sharing negotiations in Bihar.

Tejashwi Yadav, who was previously hesitant to grant the Congress a significant number of seats, may now reconsider his approach, fearing that the grand old party could sabotage RJD’s prospects in the same way it did for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi.

Additionally, Rahul Gandhi’s inconsistent stance on the caste census issue has created further tensions within the Mahagathbandhan. His recent comments questioning the authenticity of the Bihar caste survey conducted by the state government, of which Congress was a part, have unsettled the RJD. Given the importance of caste dynamics in Bihar elections, such statements could weaken the Opposition’s appeal among the OBC electorate.

BJP’S BIHAR STRATEGY: PRAGMATISM OVER POWER

For the BJP, securing Bihar is not just about winning another state election but about ensuring NDA’s long-term dominance in national politics. The decision to contest under Nitish Kumar’s leadership is a tactical move to maintain regional stability and strengthen the alliance at the Centre.

While some BJP supporters might be disappointed with the party’s willingness to play second fiddle in Bihar, the larger picture suggests a well-calculated move. If the BJP wins more seats than the JDU, it can always renegotiate power dynamics in the future. However, at this moment, the priority is to ensure NDA’s victory and prevent any possible defection by Nitish Kumar.

CONCLUSION: WILL BJP’S GAMBLE PAY OFF?

As Bihar heads towards elections, BJP’s strategy appears to be a mix of pragmatism, alliance management, and long-term political vision. By keeping Nitish Kumar as the face, the party is making a calculated compromise to secure a broader voter base and maintain a stable government both at the Centre and in Bihar.

The challenge now lies in effective coordination between the BJP and JDU, ensuring smooth seat-sharing discussions, and presenting a united front against the Mahagathbandhan. If this strategy works, the BJP-NDA alliance could comfortably retain power in Bihar, further consolidating its position in Indian politics.