Opinion | Can AAP Overcome Hurdles To Retain Delhi? The Key Factors At Play
For AAP, retaining power in Delhi is crucial not only for its political survival but also for Kejriwal’s stature as a key player in Indian politics
The 2025 Delhi Assembly election, scheduled for February 5, is a high-stakes battle for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and its leader, Arvind Kejriwal. For AAP, retaining power in Delhi is crucial not only for its political survival but also for Kejriwal’s stature as a key player in Indian politics. With the party already grappling with significant challenges in Punjab, losing Delhi would deal a severe blow to its prospects.
Several factors will shape the outcome of this election. One major concern is the corruption allegations against the AAP. Whether these claims resonate with voters to the extent of altering their preferences will be a critical determinant. Another pressing challenge is the weight of anti-incumbency. After 11 years in power, managing public discontent is no small task, and AAP will need to convince voters that it remains the best choice for Delhi.
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The party’s famed welfare schemes, or “freebies," which played a decisive role in the 2020 election, will also be put to test. The question is whether these initiatives still hold the same appeal in 2025. Lastly, AAP’s reliance on the “Kejriwal Vs who?" narrative will be crucial.
Can Kejriwal’s charisma continue to win over Delhiites, or has his magic begun to wane?
CORRUPTION CHARGES: A CRUCIAL TEST FOR AAP’s IDENTITY IN 2025
Born from Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption movement, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has always prided itself on a staunch stand against corruption. This image helped Arvind Kejriwal and AAP secure significant support, especially among Delhi’s middle class. Reports indicate that 53 per cent of middle-class voters backed AAP in the 2020 Assembly elections, compared to 39 per cent for the BJP. However, the scenario is starkly different in 2025.
Over recent years, AAP’s clean image has been tarnished by allegations of corruption, including the controversial liquor policy scam. Top leaders like Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, and Sanjay Singh faced imprisonment but are now out on bail. For AAP, this election will act as a referendum on these allegations. A victory would signal public rejection of these charges, reaffirming trust in the party’s governance.
Conversely, the BJP views these allegations as a significant dent in AAP’s credibility. They hope that the middle class, a key voter base for AAP in assembly elections, may reconsider their support.
Ultimately, the perception of voters regarding these corruption charges will play a decisive role. Will Delhi’s electorate overlook the allegations and continue to trust AAP’s governance, or will this election mark a turning point in its fortunes?
AAP’s ANTI-INCUMBENCY CHALLENGE
The 2025 Delhi Assembly election is a litmus test for the Aam Aadmi Party, marking over a decade in power. Anti-incumbency looms large, threatening to disrupt the party’s grip on the capital. Despite proactive measures like replacing 30 per cent of its sitting MLAs to address voter dissatisfaction, AAP faces formidable challenges in navigating public discontent.
Anti-incumbency reflects a natural fatigue with prolonged governance, amplified in AAP’s case by allegations of corruption and perceived governance lapses. Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri recently underscored these issues, citing unfulfilled promises and administrative shortcomings. Such narratives resonate with voters seeking accountability and change.
To counter this, AAP has introduced new candidates based on performance surveys, aiming to present a refreshed image. However, this strategy carries risks. New faces may lack the recognition and trust built by incumbents, potentially weakening AAP’s voter base. Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to exploit the anti-incumbency sentiment, focusing on AAP’s alleged governance failures and corruption charges.
On the ground, dissatisfaction over stalled infrastructure projects and unfulfilled promises could sway voters. Corruption allegations have further dented AAP’s credibility, leaving the party to grapple with a complex political landscape as it seeks to retain Delhi.
AAP’s FREEBIES STRATEGY IN FOCUS
AAP has consistently harnessed welfare schemes as a cornerstone of its electoral success. In the 2020 Delhi Assembly election, promises of free electricity, water, and healthcare propelled AAP to a decisive victory. These initiatives struck a chord with middle- and lower-income voters, delivering tangible benefits that reshaped their daily lives.
As the 2025 election approaches, the party is doubling down on this proven strategy. Among its marquee promises is the ‘Sanjeevani Yojana,’ offering free healthcare for the elderly in both government and private hospitals. Extending its reach, AAP has pledged to provide free electricity and water benefits to tenants, ensuring broader coverage of its welfare programmes. Religious leaders are also in focus with the ‘Pujari-Granthi Samman Yojana,’ which offers financial aid to temple priests and gurdwara granthis.
AAP’s ‘Mahila Samman Yojana’ seeks to empower women by providing Rs 2,100 monthly to every woman aged 18 and above, offering financial relief and greater autonomy. Students, too, are beneficiaries, with promises of free bus travel and a 50 per cent metro fare concession aimed at easing educational access.
These initiatives not only address immediate concerns but also reinforce AAP’s image as a pro-people party. By prioritising welfare and presenting itself as a government that delivers, AAP hopes to mitigate challenges like anti-incumbency and corruption allegations. This strategy underscores its commitment to a governance model focused on the electorate’s direct benefit, which may once again prove decisive in securing another term for the party.
KEJRIWAL’S CHARISMA: AAP’s TRUMP CARD FOR 2025
The Aam Aadmi Party is placing its bets on the enduring appeal of Arvind Kejriwal to secure victory in the 2025 Delhi Assembly election. Known for his image as a tireless anti-corruption crusader and an advocate for the common man, Kejriwal’s leadership remains the bedrock of AAP’s electoral strategy.
AAP’s campaign centres on the compelling narrative of “Kejriwal Vs Who?" Neither the BJP (BJP) nor the Congress has put forth a clear chief ministerial candidate, leaving a leadership vacuum in the Opposition. This absence bolsters Kejriwal’s positioning as an unchallenged leader with a proven governance record.
Kejriwal’s tenure is marked by the success of the ‘Delhi Model,’ which prioritises welfare measures like free electricity, water, and healthcare. These initiatives have solidified his popularity, particularly among middle- and lower-income groups. With no strong contender to rival his charisma, AAP’s campaign gains momentum by emphasising his achievements and vision.
The lack of a formidable opponent not only underscores Kejriwal’s dominance but also simplifies AAP’s task of unifying voter support around its leader. As Delhi heads to the polls, Kejriwal’s leadership remains AAP’s most potent weapon in the electoral battlefield.
CONGRESS’ ROLE: THE DECIDING FACTOR IN DELHI POLLS
The Delhi election is shaping up to be a high-stakes triangular battle among the Aam Aadmi Party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, and the Congress. While AAP and the BJP remain the dominant players, Congress’s performance could prove decisive in shaping the final outcome.
Traditionally, AAP has drawn significant support from Congress’s voter base, particularly among the urban poor and minority communities. In the 2020 election, Congress’s vote share plummeted to a dismal 4.3 per cent, enabling AAP to secure a commanding 53.57 per cent victory. However, Congress has since been making efforts to regain its footing, striving to reconnect with its traditional base and reviving its organisational machinery in key constituencies.
A stronger Congress could significantly disrupt the electoral equation. If the party succeeds in pulling votes away from AAP, it could inadvertently aid the BJP by dividing the anti-AAP vote. Conversely, a poor performance by Congress might consolidate anti-incumbency sentiments in AAP’s favour, helping Arvind Kejriwal secure another term.
For AAP, this election is not merely about countering the BJP’s narrative but also about preventing Congress from regaining relevance in Delhi’s political landscape. The intricate dynamics among these three parties will ultimately determine the capital’s political future.
The author, a columnist and research scholar, teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. His handle on X is @sayantan_gh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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