Opinion | From Countering China To Terrorism: How India Could Gain From Trump’s Presidency

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Last Updated:November 09, 2024, 14:46 IST

Known for a firm stance on Islamist terrorism, Trump’s leadership could see the US and India intensify intelligence-sharing, counter-extremism measures and pressure on neighbouring nations to act against terror networks

Prime Minister Modi was one of the very first world leaders who spoke to Trump after his victory. (X/@narendramodi)

As Donald Trump is set to re-enter the White House, India’s geopolitical and economic strategies may experience renewed alignment with US priorities, particularly in managing regional security and counterterrorism. During Trump’s previous tenure, India benefitted from a stronger US stance against China, facilitating greater cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and enhancing India’s leverage within regional alliances. If Trump’s second term mirrors this, India may find bolstered support in containing China’s assertive presence in South Asia and strengthening shared goals of freedom and stability across the Indo-Pacific.

Another area where Trump’s policies could benefit India is counterterrorism. Known for a firm stance on Islamist terrorism, Trump’s leadership could see the US and India intensify intelligence-sharing, counter-extremism measures, and pressure on neighbouring nations to act against terror networks. With Pakistan often criticised for harbouring terrorist groups, Trump’s no-nonsense policy could further curtail support to these groups, enhancing India’s own security.

Economically, Trump’s focus on bilateral trade deals could be a mixed bag but might open avenues for direct negotiations that prioritise India’s manufacturing and technology sectors. Trade adjustments, if strategically managed, could support India’s goals of “Make in India" and economic self-reliance, aligning with Trump’s preference for strong bilateral trade relationships over multilateral agreements. Lastly, with Trump’s backing of the Quad, India’s partnership with the US, Japan, and Australia may continue to gain momentum. This alignment would not only advance India’s strategic position in the region but could also lead to expanded collaboration in defence, cybersecurity, and supply chains.

Pressure on China in the Indo-Pacific

With Trump poised to return to the White House, his strong stance on China could play into India’s strategic interests in significant ways. During his last tenure, Trump revived and strengthened the Quad alliance—a partnership among the US, India, Japan, and Australia—aimed at curbing China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Trump’s commitment to this alliance suggests his presidency could bolster India’s regional security concerns, particularly regarding China’s assertive posturing.

Enhanced US-India defence agreements under Trump’s leadership laid a foundation for military cooperation and technology transfer, which is essential for India’s efforts to modernise its armed forces. If renewed, this defence collaboration would help India sustain a strategic advantage in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.

Beyond security, Trump’s call to decouple the US economy from China could open economic opportunities for India. By motivating American companies to seek alternatives to Chinese manufacturing, India stands positioned as an appealing option for diversified supply chains. This shift not only promises a boost to India’s manufacturing sector but also reduces its economic reliance on Chinese imports, strengthening its resilience amid global disruptions. A Trump presidency could thus foster deeper US-India economic integration, empowering India’s ambitions to emerge as a leading global manufacturing hub.

Trump’s Counterterrorism Stance: A Strategic Boost for India’s Security

Trump’s firm stance on counterterrorism, particularly towards Pakistan, has had significant implications for India. During his presidency, Trump reduced military aid to Pakistan, a move that directly addressed India’s longstanding concerns over cross-border terrorism. By cutting off financial support, the Trump administration aimed to pressure Pakistan into taking more decisive action against terrorist organisations operating within its borders. This approach aligned the US more closely with India’s security narrative, which has consistently highlighted the threat posed by groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.

The Trump administration’s willingness to impose sanctions on terror-linked entities further bolstered India’s counterterrorism efforts. By targeting the financial networks and assets of these groups, the US provided India with crucial diplomatic backing. This support was instrumental in isolating terrorism-supporting entities on the global stage, thereby reducing their operational capabilities. The US also worked closely with India in various international forums, including the United Nations, to push for stricter measures against terrorism.

Moreover, Trump’s administration emphasised the importance of intelligence sharing and joint counterterrorism operations. This collaboration enhanced India’s ability to pre-empt and respond to terrorist threats. The US and India conducted several joint military exercises, such as the Vajra Prahar and Yudh Abhyas, which focused on counterterrorism tactics and strategies. These exercises not only improved interoperability between the two nations’ armed forces but also demonstrated a united front against terrorism.

Strengthening Indo-US Defence and Security Cooperation

A second Trump term could significantly solidify the defence ties between India and the US, as his administration has been proactive in upgrading bilateral military engagements. Initiatives like the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) have been pivotal in this regard. BECA, signed in 2020, allows India to access American geospatial intelligence, enhancing the accuracy of its missiles and armed drones and improving its topographical and aeronautical data. COMCASA, signed in 2018, facilitates secure communication between the two nations’ military systems, enabling India to utilise advanced US defence technology.

These agreements are particularly crucial in countering China’s regional expansionism. By providing India with high-quality GPS data and real-time intelligence, BECA enhances India’s strategic edge in the Indo-Pacific region. COMCASA, on the other hand, ensures that Indian and American military platforms can communicate securely, which is essential for coordinated operations. Trump’s firm stance against China’s aggressive policies aligns with India’s security strategy, creating a robust framework for an even stronger Indo-US defence partnership.

Economic and Trade Synergies

Despite Trump’s occasional criticism of trade deficits, his presidency has offered India an opportunity to expand bilateral trade relations, especially in the energy and technology sectors. Trump’s focus on reducing trade deficits has pushed India and the US toward balanced trade negotiations, aiming to reduce tariffs and barriers on both sides. This approach has led to increased energy exports from the US to India, significantly reducing India’s dependency on the Middle East and stabilising its energy supply.

The energy sector has seen substantial growth, with US crude exports to India rising steadily. This shift not only diversifies India’s energy sources but also strengthens its energy security. Additionally, the technology sector has benefited from enhanced cooperation, with American firms increasingly viewing India as a key market for investment and innovation.

Trump’s administration has also emphasised the importance of fair and reciprocal trade, which led to more balanced trade negotiations. By addressing tariff and non-tariff barriers, both countries have worked towards creating a more equitable trading environment. This trend is likely to continue, offering India long-term economic benefits and expanded access to American technology and resources.