Opinion | Has Bangladesh Stolen A Leaf Out Of India’s Book Of Diplomatic Chess?
Dhaka has delivered Delhi a reality check about the limits of its own influence. Bangladesh's geographical location with respect to India's own strategic goals in the Bay of Bengal accords it the status of a critical player
At the end of the day, one photo summed up the state of ties between Delhi and Dhaka. India’s foreign secretary Vikram Misri is portrayed posing alongside his counterpart Mohammad Touhid Hossain. Misri is standing his hands primly crossed in front of his body as if happy to be minding their own business. To his left stands Hossain, body at a right angle to Misri, hands planted firmly by his side. The absence of the customary handshake seems deliberate, as if to signal that there was still an unrequited expectation gap between Delhi and Dhaka.
Huge hopes were pinned on the first high-level talks between India and Bangladesh after the August coup against Awami League chief and the then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
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There was much to reconcile with. The close ties between India and Bangladesh have been strained after Hasina fled to India in the face of a massive anti-government protest that peaked in August. Hasina has been replaced by Nobel Peace laureate Muhammad Yunus, who has been chosen to head the interim coalition government.
Yunus and elements of the Bangladesh opposition with which he shares power blame Delhi for enabling Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League to consolidate their allegedly dictatorial hold over the country. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) often called her “Delhi’s stooge". It was but obvious that the anger against Hasina would also spill over to her alleged “sponsor" the Indian government. But even Delhi wasn’t expecting that the reprisal attacks would take on the shape of a near-pogrom against Bangladeshi Hindus.
Since the bloodless coup against Hasina, Hindu temples and small businesses belonging to Hindus have been attacked. The monks of a Hindu commune, ISKCON, have been jailed. It is as if the Hindus of Bangladesh are being scapegoated by the “revolutionaries" to get back at India. The precarious situation in which Bangladeshi Hindus find themselves necessitated immediate talks.
In the end, sadly, the talks don’t seem to have moved the needle towards the highly anticipated rapprochement. If anything, Dhaka has stepped all over Delhi’s toes by calling upon it to join the initiative to “revive SAARC". This indelicate proposition has been captured in the post-talks statement released by the office of Muhammad Yunus. Over the years, India had virtually abandoned SAARC and moved on with a new grouping called BIMSTEC. This is a cosy club, comprising nations that have a stake in the Bay of Bengal region. India forged the BIMSTEC to primarily isolate arch-nemesis Pakistan and maintain its own hegemony over its own backyard. The reference to SAARC by Dhaka in the dialogue is a clear signal to Delhi that the Yunus administration is keen on opening a line to Islamabad. Clearly, Bangladesh’s new managers have learnt a trick or two from India on the considerable merits of autonomously pursuing their own strategic objectives.
Second, the Yunus administration, in connection with the attacks on minority Bangladeshi Hindus, has firmly told India that “other countries" should refrain from commenting on Dhaka’s “internal matter".
This terse rebuttal reflects that Bangladesh under Yunus is likely to draw firmer redlines than the previous Hasina regime when pursuing diplomatic ties with India. Delhi, of course, can hardly complain given that it too has vehemently objected to foreign interference in her domestic matters. Especially under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tenure.
Third, Bangladesh has raised with “concern" ousted “despot" Sheikh Hasina using Indian soil to make statements that create “tensions" in the country. The very fact that Hasina was mentioned during the talks is a sign that Dhaka is yet to reconcile with India providing her safe passage. Delhi will have to think hard about the long-term utility of harbouring Hasina. It must ask itself if there are other ways, besides relying on Hasina, that allow it to exercise leverage over the new setup in Dhaka.
Lastly, by refusing to play ball, Dhaka has delivered Delhi a reality check about the limits of its own influence. Bangladesh’s geographical location with respect to India’s own strategic goals in the Bay of Bengal accords it the status of a critical player. India cannot expect to play Big Brother. Lest irritating Dhaka pushes it further into the China-Pakistan sphere of influence.
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