Opinion | Pakistan Must Understand That Blood And Water Can’t Flow Together

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Last Updated:April 24, 2025, 16:41 IST

India has set the stage to tighten the noose around Pakistan. But it’s still a beginning

The pact sought to divide the water of the Indus river and its tributaries equitably among the two countries. Representational pic/PTI

India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is not only morally justified, considering continuing cross-border terrorism, but also legally defensible due to repeated procedural violations by Pakistan. This action, a sovereign right exercised to protect national interest, security, and the integrity of international agreements, underscores that reciprocity and mutual adherence are non-negotiable.

This step signals that while India has always honoured its international commitments, it will not be taken for granted when the other party repeatedly breaches the spirit and terms of the agreement.

Pakistan has invoked the treaty’s dispute resolution provisions three times, not always in good faith. The first instance involved objections to a hydropower project on the Chenab River in Kashmir, India. While Pakistan raised concerns that the project could give Indian engineers undue control over river flows, the World Bank-appointed neutral expert ruled in favour of India in 2007, validating the project’s design and sediment management as being in line with international best practices.

The most critical breach occurred in 2016, when Pakistan unilaterally bypassed the treaty’s graded mechanism of dispute resolution outlined under Article IX of the IWT. This article mandates a stepwise escalation—from technical discussions to neutral expert adjudication and finally, if needed, to a Court of Arbitration. In 2015, Pakistan initially requested a neutral expert to examine technical objections to India’s Kishenganga and Ratle Hydroelectric Projects. However, in 2016, it withdrew this request and unilaterally approached the Court of Arbitration, violating the agreed dispute-resolution protocol. This deliberate deviation undermined the legal sanctity of the treaty and indicated a pattern of weaponising legal mechanisms for political ends.

India’s Reasoned Response and Legal Position

Recognising this breach, India issued a formal notice to Pakistan on January 25, 2023, calling for the modification of the treaty to ensure that the dispute resolution process could no longer be exploited unilaterally.

By exhausting diplomatic options and adhering to procedural fairness, India has demonstrated responsibility and restraint. The eventual suspension of the treaty came only after persistent violations and was triggered further by national security threats, such as the Pulwama terror attack in 2019, which claimed 40 lives.

Implications for Pakistan

• Agricultural Impact: Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus River system for irrigation, with about 80% of its cultivated land (approximately 16 million hectares) depending on these waters. The agricultural sector contributes 23% to Pakistan’s national income and supports 68% of its rural inhabitants. Reduced water availability could lead to lower crop yields, food shortages, and economic instability.

• Water Security: The Indus basin supplies 154.3 million acre-feet of water annually, which is vital for irrigating extensive agricultural areas and ensuring food security. Pakistan’s water storage capacity is low, with major dams like Mangla and Tarbela having a combined live storage of only about 14.4 MAF, which is just 10% of Pakistan’s annual water share under the treaty. The suspension exacerbates these vulnerabilities by cutting off a guaranteed water supply.

• Economic Impact: The suspension of the treaty could have significant economic implications for Pakistan, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors. It may also affect the country’s power generation capabilities, as hydropower is a crucial source of electricity.

Pressure Mounting to Tighten Noose around Pakistan

The Indus Waters Treaty may only be suspended. But there are over half a dozen projects in India that regulate water flow into Pakistan. If they are suspended, Pakistan knows the repercussions.

• Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project (tributary of the Jhelum): Commissioned in 2018, it diverts water through a 23 km tunnel.

• Ratle Hydroelectric Project (on the Chenab): Revived in 2021 with an 850 MW capacity—Pakistan raised concerns over potential flow manipulation.

• Tulbul Navigation Project (on the Jhelum): Revived post-Uri attack in 2016. Though once shelved, it can regulate water flow.

• Shahpurkandi Dam (on the Ravi): Cleared in 2018 to block surplus water from flowing into Pakistan.