29 Lakh HIV Deaths Possible By 2030 As Global Funding Shrinks: Study
New research in The Lancet HIV warned that declining international funding could lead to 1.8 crore new HIV infections and 29 lakh deaths by 2030, threatening decades of progress.
A stark warning has emerged from new research indicating that the fight against HIV could face a severe setback due to declining international funding. According to a study published in The Lancet HIV, reductions in financial support for prevention and treatment programs could lead to millions of new infections and deaths by 2030.
The study, conducted by researchers at the Burnet Institute in Melbourne, Australia, predicts that if current funding cuts continue, the world could see up to 1.8 crore new HIV infections and as many as 29 lakh related deaths between 2025 and 2030. The projections highlight a crisis that could undo decades of progress in combating the disease.
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Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) attacks the body’s immune system, weakening its ability to fight infections. Without treatment, HIV can progress to Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS), a condition that has already claimed millions of lives worldwide. In 2023 alone, the United Nations AIDS program (UNAIDS) reported 6,30,000 deaths due to AIDS-related illnesses.
Despite past successes in controlling the virus, the latest study warns that a 24% reduction in global HIV funding by 2026 could have dire consequences. Wealthy donor nations including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Netherlands have announced funding cuts ranging from 8% to as much as 70%. These countries collectively provide over 90% of international HIV aid, meaning their pullback could drastically weaken prevention and treatment efforts worldwide.
One of the most significant blows to global HIV programs has come from the United States, historically the largest contributor to HIV-related aid. The study points to a major funding shortfall following the inauguration of President Donald Trump on January 20, when the US abruptly halted financial support for key initiatives. The decision has already disrupted life-saving services such as antiretroviral therapy, HIV testing, and preventive care.
Dr Debra Ten Brink of the Burnet Institute emphasised the severe implications of these cuts, warning that they threaten to reverse decades of progress in HIV treatment. “The US has been the backbone of global HIV prevention, and this withdrawal could reignite the epidemic," she said. “If other donor nations follow suit, we could see a devastating resurgence of HIV worldwide."
The study warns that funding cuts will have the greatest impact on sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV remains widespread, and on marginalised populations, including people who inject drugs, sex workers, and men who have sex with men. These groups already face higher infection rates, and without targeted intervention programs, the virus could spread at an even faster pace.
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