Delhi Elections: What If BJP And AAP Had Each Won 35 Seats?

Here is a look at the likely sequence of events if both BJP and AAP had ended up winning 35 seats each.

Who Stakes Claim?

In cases of hung Assembly, the Governor or Lieutenant Governor invites the party with the most seats to form the government, giving it 10 days to prove majority in the Assembly. But in case the single largest party decides not to strike up post-poll alliances and chooses to stay out of power, the chance to form a government passes on to smaller parties in case they are able to cross the majority mark on combined strength.

Delhi’s Brush With Minority Govt

Delhi is not new to such a situation. In the 2013 Assembly elections, the BJP had emerged as the single largest party, winning 31 of the 70 seats. It, however, failed to cobble up the numbers to crack the magic mark of 36 and chose to remain out of power. An unlikely alliance was then struck by the AAP which won 28 seats and the Congress which won eight seats. The latter provided outside support and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal became the chief minister of a minority government. This minority government, however, was short-lived as Kejriwal resigned within 49 days amid differences over the introduction of Delhi’s Jan Lokpal Bill.

But two parties winning 35 seats apiece complicates the situation since it eliminated the possibility of either party immediately reaching 36 seats.

Interim Measures

If neither party is able to show letters of support to the Lieutenant Governor from at least 36 MLAs to form the government, the options before the L-G are keeping the Assembly in suspended animation and:

• Appoint a caretaker CM
• Recommend President’s Rule

Delhi last went under President’s Rule in 2014 following Arvind Kejriwal’s resignation. The President’s Rule had lasted from February 16, 2014 to February 14, 2015. Kejriwal had served as caretaker chief minister during this period.

Horse-Trading

Throughout this process, parties keep trying to poach MLAs from the other side to cross the magic mark. Often, this gives rise to what is referred to as ‘resort politics’ – both camps sequester their MLAs in remote resorts, usually in a state where they are in power.

If one of the parties is able to break through the rival ranks and get MLAs onto its side, it may approach the L-G afresh with the letters of support. This paves the way for a floor test in the Assembly, and until this time each party tries to keep its remaining flock together.

Fresh Elections: The Last Resort

However, if the party staking claim fails the floor test or neither party is unable to reach the magic mark after a considerable period of time, the L-G goes in for the last option remaining – order fresh elections.

In 2014, around eight months after President’s Rule was imposed in the national capital, then L-G Najeeb Jung made a recommendation to the Union Cabinet to dissolve the Delhi Legislative Assembly and conduct fresh elections. Fresh elections were eventually held on February 7, 2015, bringing Kejriwal and AAP to power with a full majority.

However, this time, Delhi has handed a clear mandate to the BJP, bringing it to power in the national capital after more than 25 years.