Turkey Turmoil: Why Istanbul Mayor Has Been Arrested, Protests, Erdogan’s Power Play Explained

“Although there is strong suspicion of aiding an armed terrorist organisation, since it has already been decided that he will be arrested for financial crimes, (his arrest) is not deemed necessary at this stage," it said, as quoted by Al Jazeera.

Is The Arrest Politically Motivated?

Many voters are angry about persistently high inflation in the country. This has contributed immensely in waning of Erdogan’s popularity. His opponents had coalesced around the mayor of Istanbul who made it clear that he was gunning for the presidency.

Thus, he was detained following a raid on his residence earlier this week. The formal arrest came as his opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, started holding a primary presidential election to endorse Imamoglu as its presidential candidate despite the arrest.

CHP, which has more than 1.5 million members, had set up 5,600 “solitary" ballot boxes for voting across all of Turkiye’s 81 provinces. The “solitary boxes" was a symbol to allow people who are not party members to express their support to the mayor.

His imprisonment is being regarded as a political move to remove a major contender from the next presidential race, currently scheduled for 2028.

What Erdogan Has To Say?

Turkey’s government has rejected claims of politically motivated legal actions against the opposition, insisting instead that courts operate independently.

President Erdogan on Saturday accused the CHP’s leadership of turning the party “into an apparatus to absolve a handful of municipal robbers who have become blinded by money".

He also accused it of “doing everything to disturb the public peace, to polarize the nation".

Largest Protests In Turkey?

Thousands of protesters defied government bans on demonstrations to gather in Turkey’s three largest cities — Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir — and in others as well last Friday.

Reports suggest that the police said at least 300,000 people protested in Istanbul on Saturday night. However, the opposition claimed the number was close to one million.

Police confronted some protesters with tear gas and rubber bullets, and the Interior Ministry said on Saturday that 343 people had been arrested.

The protests appeared to be Turkey’s largest since demonstrations against a development plan in Istanbul in 2013, which grew into large rallies that the police suppressed. Five people were convicted on charges of trying to overthrow the government. Human rights groups called the charges “baseless".

How Mayor’s Arrest Undermines Turkey’s Democracy

Experts say the election of Turkey’s next president will reflect whether it remains a democracy considering it is one of the world’s 20 largest economies and a US ally in NATO.

Erdogan has dominated Turkish politics since 2003, first as prime minister then as president since 2014. During that time, he has overseen tremendous economic growth and repeatedly led his ruling Justice and Development Party to victory at the polls.

But critics say Erdogan has solidified his control by eroding Turkish democracy, “stocking the state bureaucracy with loyalists, co-opting the news media to limit negative coverage and cultivating state prosecutors and judges to legally punish his foes over the last few years," as per The New York Times.

Though most critics don’t consider Turkey an outright autocracy as many civil freedoms and opposition parties contest elections, and sometimes win as seen in the municipal contests last year.

But the question that Turkey faces is whether it will remain a mix of democracy and autocracy or shift towards the latter.

If Imamoglu fights the presidential race, it would Turkey next to Azerbaijan, Belarus or Russia where elections take place but make a little difference to the system, as per an expert, Hasan Sinar, a professor of criminal law at Altinbas University in Istanbul, quoted by the NYT.

How World Leaders, Activists React To Turkey’s Situation?

Amnesty International said Imamoglu’s arrest marked an escalation in an ongoing attack on Erdogan’s rivals. “While the weaponization of vague anti-terrorism allegations to detain and prosecute opponents is not new, these latest detentions and associated restrictions represent an alarming intensification of the targeting of real or perceived critics," said Dinushika Dissanayake, Amnesty’s deputy director for Europe, as quoted by Deutsche Welle.

Marc Cools, who heads the grouping’s congress of local authorities, told NPR, “We deplore the decision to place Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu in detention, and demand his immediate release."

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and an author of a biography of Erdogan, said with Imamoglu’s arrest, Erdogan was taking an extreme measure against his key opponent.

“Erdogan is determined to do whatever it takes to end Imamoglu’s career," he said. “(Imamoglu) beats Erdogan in every imaginable presidential poll."

Why Imamoglu Is On The Radar

Before his detention, Imamoglu had already faced multiple criminal cases that could result in prison sentences and a political ban. He was also appealing a 2022 conviction for insulting members of Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council.

Earlier in the week, his university diploma was nullified, citing alleged irregularities in his transfer from a private university in Northern Cyprus some 30 years ago. The decision effectively bars him from running for president, since the position requires candidates to be university graduates. He had vowed to challenge the decision.

Imamoglu was elected mayor of Istanbul in March 2019, in a major blow to Erdogan and the president’s Justice and Development Party, which had controlled Turkey’s largest city for a quarter-century. Erdogan’s party pushed to void the municipal election results in the city of 16 million, alleging irregularities.

The mayor retained his seat following local elections last year, during which the CHP made significant gains against Erdogan’s governing party.