Gold Price Outlook 2025: Will Yellow Metal Touch Rs 1 Lakh Or Drop By 40%? Here's What Experts Predict

Gold Price Outlook 2025: There’s a high volatility in the gold prices in recent times amid macrolevel uncertainty and escalation of trade war between the US and China fueled by Donald Trump’s tariff push.

Gold prices on MCX hit record highs on Friday. Gold future contract for June 5th touched to 93,736 per 10 grammes. Around 9:40 Am, the contract was trading at 93495 per 10 grammes with a gain of 1.59 per cent.

Gold is seen as a hedge against the uncertainty when other assets like equities are volatile. Prices in recent times have risen as investors are hoarding their investment in gold instead of volatile equities.  But will the upward price momentum sustain hereafter?

Experts are having varied opinions on the issue. Some experts believe that gold price per 10 grammes will touch Rs 1 lakh mark soon this year, while others anticipate it to fall as much as 38-40% in the near term.

Gold prices are being bolstered by strong central bank purchases and a blend of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, largely influenced by Trump’s tariff plans, according to Ryan McIntyre, senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management.

Colin Shah, Managing Director of Kama Jewelry, informed The Hindu Businessline that there is a high probability that gold will reach the Rs 1-lakh mark by 2025, given the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

Additionally, Shah mentioned that as a safe-haven asset, gold experiences increased demand and fund flows during periods of economic instability.

Kishore Narne, Director & Head of Commodities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, told CNBCTV18 that there is “no ceiling" for gold prices, predicting they could easily rise to $4,000-4,500 per ounce. He emphasized, “Whatever number you set, it will come eventually."

Chintan Mehta, CEO of Abans Financial Services, shared with Mint that the ongoing gold rally is an extension of the current trend, rather than the beginning of a new uptrend.

Mehta suggested that the current situation appears to be an extended rally rather than the beginning of a new uptrend. He does not anticipate prices reaching Rs 1 lakh in 2025, as most bullish factors have already been factored in. With these elements mostly considered, there may not be sufficient new catalysts to push gold beyond the Rs 1 lakh mark

John Mills, a market strategist at the US-based financial services firm Morningstar, has forecasted that gold prices could drop to $1,820 per ounce, a significant decrease from its current level of around $3,080 per ounce. This would represent nearly a 38-40% decline, which could substantially impact the gold market.

Although the current trend is bullish, Mills and other analysts argue that several factors including increase supply, decrease demand, and market saturation could lead to a sharp fall in gold prices.