Hotter Than Usual? As Temperatures Soar, IMD Warns Of 6-10 Heatwave Days In Many States This Summer

This comes after an unusually warm start to the year, with even the average monthly temperature in March recorded 0.78℃ above the long-period average (LPA). “It has definitely been warmer this year. There was some short relief in March, but the maximum temperatures have continued to be above normal. While a lot of it is determined by the impact of western disturbances, which were insufficient this time, the overall global warming and climate change are playing a major role too," said IMD’s director general of meteorology Dr Mrityunjay Mohapatra.

India is vulnerable to extreme heat, and has already been hit by heatwave spells from March 10 to 18, when temperatures surged past 40℃ in several states. The east-central region was the most affected and, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha in Maharashtra, as well as parts of Saurashtra-Kutch in Gujarat are expected to be hit hard by heatwaves in the coming three months.

The latest forecast suggests both day and night temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of India in April. Normally, one to three heatwave days are expected in April, but this year, the number is likely to be at least three to six. The mercury has already started rising, and no respite is expected till April 10.

The IMD declares a heatwave when the mercury crosses 40℃, and the maximum temperatures are at least 4.5℃ to 6.5℃ above-normal in plains, but it becomes severe when it exceeds 6.5℃.

EXTREME HEAT ALARM

The latest forecast is concerning, considering the devastating impacts of extreme heat on India’s population over the recent years.

Studies show that heatwaves are becoming longer, more intense, frequent and deadlier over the country, impacting much larger areas than ever before under the impact of global warming. It is not only the rise in day temperatures, but nights are becoming exceptionally warmer.

This also follows a record-breaking summer season last year, when eastern states suffered unusually long and intense heatwaves that upended lives and livelihoods. The weather department, meanwhile, also expects rainfall during April to be normal, especially after a staggering deficit last month. India experienced a shortfall of nearly 32.6 per cent rainfall in March, with only two active western disturbances. Normally, northwestern region witnesses four to five western disturbances during the month.

NO EL NINO DURING MONSOON SEASON

The sea surface temperatures, meanwhile, have already started to rise over the equatorial Pacific Ocean after a brief cooling period – signalling the end of La Nina.

According to most forecasting models, however, the conditions will transition to neutral in April and continue in the same state till June. With this, the IMD has also ruled out any El Nino for the summer and monsoon season so far. This is good news because El Nino not only brings unusually high temperatures, but is also linked with below-par monsoon rains.