Nifty Prediction For Monday, April 15: Will Market Extend Gains? GIFT Nifty Indicates Gap-Up Open
Nifty Prediction For Tomorrow: GIFT Nifty up 246 points hints at strong start for Nifty on April 15; Global cues, earnings in focus
GIFT Nifty Signals Positive Start for Nifty on April 15: On April 14, while domestic equity markets remained closed in observance of Ambedkar Jayanti, GIFT Nifty traded strongly at 28,383, marking a gain of 246 points. This upward movement indicates a likely gap-up opening for the Nifty 50 when markets resume on April 15. GIFT Nifty, which reflects offshore trading in NSE-listed derivatives, is often viewed as a key indicator of early investor sentiment and overnight global cues. The positive momentum could be attributed to easing geopolitical concerns or upbeat earnings updates from global corporations.
If this momentum carries forward into the new trading week, the Nifty could extend its recent recovery rally. However, market participants should tread cautiously given the elevated volatility and several potential market-moving triggers such as upcoming corporate earnings, key macroeconomic data, and global developments, particularly from the US and China. Analysts see immediate resistance around the 23,000 level, while support is pegged near 22,700. A decisive move beyond these levels could determine the direction for the rest of the week.
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Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, noted that market attention will likely turn to the outcome of ongoing India-US trade negotiations, which could provide greater clarity on future trade flows. He also emphasized that the current domestic environment, marked by softening interest rates and a benign inflation outlook, supports a balanced investment approach. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to moderate further, creating room for the Reserve Bank of India to maintain an accommodative stance. However, Nair cautioned that the shortened trading week may keep investor sentiment on edge.
Market Recap
Equity benchmarks were highly volatile last week, with the Nifty 50 plunging to levels not seen since June 2024 before recovering to close with a modest weekly loss of 0.33% at 22,828.55. The BSE Sensex also declined by 0.28%. This turbulence was largely driven by mounting global trade tensions after the United States imposed steep tariffs on major trading partners, including China, the European Union, and India. In retaliation, China raised duties on U.S. goods to as much as 125%, prompting the U.S. to respond with a further hike to 145%. Some calm returned to markets after Washington announced a 90-day tariff reprieve for all nations except China.
The week saw the Nifty touch an intra-week low of 21,743.65 before staging a sharp recovery. Among sectoral indices, FMCG stocks outperformed, while the realty sector remained under pressure. In global markets, U.S. bond yields spiked, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 11.55% to 4.462%, while the U.S. dollar index dropped below the 100-mark, declining 2.72%. Meanwhile, the Indian rupee weakened by 0.78% to Rs 86.18 per U.S. dollar amid concerns over the current account deficit and persistent foreign outflows. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded Rs 20,911 crore during the week, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) absorbed some of the pressure with Rs 21,955 crore in net inflows. The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, surged 46%, highlighting growing investor nervousness.
Technical Outlook
According to Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, markets are likely to remain volatile in the upcoming week, influenced by global macroeconomic data and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. On the domestic front, key indicators such as Wholesale Price Index (WPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), foreign exchange reserves, and passenger vehicle sales figures are scheduled for release and may add to market sensitivity.
Technically, the Nifty 50 formed a strong marubozu candle on the weekly chart, indicating buying interest at lower levels. Despite an early week plunge of nearly 5%, the index managed to recover and close only 0.33% lower, reflecting resilience. However, the index is still trading below its 21-day and 55-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), suggesting the broader trend remains weak. Key support levels are placed at 22,500 and 22,200, while resistance is seen at 23,050. Until a clear trend reversal is confirmed, analysts advise against aggressive long positions and recommend maintaining a cautious stance, he noted.
Bank Nifty Outlook
Bank Nifty witnessed a notable recovery last week, supported by the Reserve Bank of India’s recent 25 basis point rate cut to 6% and its shift to a more accommodative policy stance. These developments provided support to banking stocks, which outperformed the broader market undercurrents. Technically, Bank Nifty is trading above both its 21-day and 55-day EMAs, indicating short-term strength, Singhania explained.
Immediate support is placed at 50,400, which aligns with the 21-day EMA. A breach of this level could push the index down toward 49,800. On the upside, 52,000 acts as a psychological resistance level. A decisive close above this could pave the way for further gains, but until then, upside potential may remain limited. Given the volatile backdrop, traders are advised to remain vigilant and closely monitor these key levels before initiating fresh positions, he added.
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