Delhi Exit Polls 2025 Forecast BJP May Return To Power After 27 Years, AAP's Dominance Likely To End

Curated By :

Last Updated:February 05, 2025, 23:01 IST

Delhi Exit Polls 2025 Analysis: If the BJP indeed gets the seats as predicted – ranging between 35 and 60 in the 70-member House – it would end the AAP’s decade-long dominance in the national capital’s legislature

While AAP is eyeing another term, banking on its governance record and welfare schemes, the BJP and Congress are looking for a resurgence. (File image: PTI)

The BJP is likely to make a comeback after nearly three decades in the Delhi assembly elections, but the AAP may not be far behind despite most exit polls predicting a majority for the saffron party.

If the BJP indeed gets the seats as predicted – somewhere between 18 and 60 in the 70-member House – it would end the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP’s decade-long dominance in the national capital’s Vidhan Sabha. This also puts the BJP in commanding position as the single largest party.

But, a majority of the exit polls also predicted a close electoral contest with the AAP tally ranging between 10 and 52 seats, while the Congress, which did not win a single seat in 2015 and 2020, is likely to repeat its performance yet again either by not opening its account or winning at least three seats.

FOLLOW DELHI EXIT POLLS 2025 LIVE UPDATES HERE

Here’s what the exit polls look like:

ABP Matrize

According to the ABP Matrize exit polls, it will be a close contest between the BJP and AAP. It predicted 35 to 40 seats for the BJP, and 32 to 27 for the AAP. The survey gave 46 per cent vote share to the BJP, followed by the AAP at 44 per cent, the Congress at 8 per cent and 2 per cent for others.

AAP: 32-27

BJP: 35-40

Congress: 0-1

P-MARQ

P-Marq also predicted a close contest between the BJP and AAP. It gave 45 per cent vote share to the saffron party, with a close 42 per cent to the AAP, and only 9 and 4 per cent to the Congress and others, respectively.

BJP: 39-49

AAP: 21-31

Congress: 0-1

PEOPLES PULSE

Peoples Pulse, however, predicted a sweeping victory for the BJP with at least 51 seats, far ahead of the majority mark of 36.

BJP: 51-60

AAP: 10-19

JVC

JVC exit polls showed that the BJP may win at least 39 seats with 31 to the AAP and at least two to the Congress.

AAP: 22-31

BJP: 39-45

Congress: 0-2

POLL DIARY

Poll Diary was another survey to predict a big win for the BJP with at least 42 to 50 seats.

AAP: 18-25

BJP: 42-50

Congress: 0-2

CHANAKYA STRATEGIES

Chanakya Strategies gave 39 to 44 seats to the BJP and 25 to 28 seats to the AAP with at least two seats for the Congress.

BJP: 39-44

AAP: 25-28

Congress: 2-3

DV RESEARCH

DV Research predicted at least 36 seats for the BJP, with the AAP closely following at 34.

AAP: 26-34

BJP: 36-44

Congress: 0

Others: 0

PEOPLE’S INSIGHT

People’s Insight predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP with 40 to 44 seats.

AAP: 25-29

BJP: 40-44

Congress: 1

WEEPRESIDE

WeePreside became an outlier in predicting a strong victory and a third consecutive term for the AAP with 46 to 52 seats.

AAP: 46-52

BJP: 18-23

ZEENIA

While Zeenia also predicted a win for the AAP, it is a close one with 33 to 38 seats for the party.

AAP: 33-38

BJP: 31-36

Congress: 0-2

Others: 0-2

KK SURVEY

Also swaying away from the majority, KK Survey predicted a comfortable win for the AAP with 44 seats.

AAP: 44

BJP: 26

Congress: 0

Delhi recorded a voter turnout of 57.89 per cent on Wednesday amid charges of malpractices including money distribution and fake voting by both AAP and BJP, who are engaged in an intense battle to decide who rules the national capital. The turnout is about five percentage points lower than the 2020 assembly polls (62.59 per cent) when the AAP won 62 seats out of 70, while the BJP got eight and the Congress none.

Exit poll results came in soon after voting ended at 6 pm, with several predicting a victory for the BJP over the ruling AAP, while the Congress was projected to suffer yet another rout. At least six exit polls predicted a BJP victory, while two said the AAP would retain power. Two other polls showed a close contest between them, with an edge for the BJP.

The poll results are scheduled to be declared on February 8. Exit polls are projections made by election-survey agencies, based on interviews of voters as they come out of polling booths after casting their vote. These may vary widely from the actual results.

ALSO READ | Delhi Elections 2025: Were Exit Polls Right In 2020? Here’s What Pollsters Predicted

WHAT DID THE CONTENDERS SAY?

Reacting to the exit polls, AAP national spokesperson Reena Gupta rejected the results saying the party will again form the government in Delhi and Kejriwal will become the chief minister fourth time in a row. Delhi BJP chief Virendra Sachdeva stressed that his party’s victory will be more spectacular than what the exit polls showed.

Gupta said the pollsters have “historically" underestimated AAP’s performance. “You look at any exit poll — whether in 2013, 2015 or 2020 — the AAP was always shown getting a smaller number of seats. But it got a greater number of seats in the actual results," she said.

Sachdeva, meanwhile, said the party respects the exit poll predictions. “I believe the people of Delhi made up their minds long ago that they wanted change," he said, adding that people want a corruption-free government.

WHAT DO THE EXIT POLL RESULTS MEAN?

For the BJP, this could be the end of what many saw as a jinx, as the party made clean sweeps in Delhi in the last three Lok Sabha elections, yet could not win the assembly elections. The party won the very first assembly election in 1993, and served a five-year term with three different chief ministers through it. It lost in 1998, and the Congress went onto rule for 15 years before the AAP phenomenon hit.

The AAP and its supremo Arvind Kejriwal have centred their politics so far around Delhi, though the party is also in power in Punjab. A loss in Delhi, therefore, could lead to an existential crisis for it, especially with the Congress now resurgent. The party gained from the fact that Delhi, being the capital, gets disproportionately high attention even when the assembly is nowhere comparable to other states in terms of its size and powers.

In terms of seats, the Congress tally may be completely ignored but context matters. After three consecutive losses in the Lok Sabha and, now the Vidhan Sabha, the party may be written off at face value. But, recovering lost ground in Delhi helps it underline its position as the pre-eminent anti-BJP force in the country.

Around 2012, Kejriwal started his political career on an anti-Congress plank – since the Congress-led UPA was in power at the Centre at the time – and went onto become quite a thorn in the BJP’s side. Kejriwal has had a strange situationship with the Congress, having formed a brief government in alliance with it in 2013.

ALSO READ | What Are Exit Polls? How Accurate Are They? FAQ Before Delhi Election Results

Even now, the AAP was part of the Congress-led INDIA bloc in the Lok Sabha polls – they fought Delhi’s seven parliamentary seats together – and were exploring a pact in Haryana. But acrimony ensued after Kejriwal got out of jail after a two-month stay, and the Congress too became aggressive in claiming its lost vote banks.

If the exit polls and the final results match, the Delhi assembly election would mean significant gains for the BJP after the wins in Haryana and Maharashtra, which had come soon after the party failed to get a majority on its own in the Lok Sabha.