Finepoint | Russia Plays Hardball On Ukraine While Sweet-Talking Trump: The Strategy Is Paying Off
The Americans, focused on great power politics, are floating the idea of a US and Russia that work together on the global stage, hoping to reverse Russia’s strong pivot towards China. Russia is showering Trump with flattery while driving a hard bargain on Ukraine.
Trump himself has further complicated matters by floating the possibility of US ownership of Ukrainian power plants, sending shockwaves through Kyiv. For President Volodymyr Zelensky, the battlefield is no longer the sole challenge – he must now contend with shifting American positions on military aid, diplomatic backing at the United Nations, and even intelligence sharing.
related stories
The Diplomatic Chessboard in Riyadh
The recent talks in Riyadh have aimed at securing a limited ceasefire. On Sunday, the US held discussions with Ukraine, followed by a separate meeting with Russia on Monday, all under the same roof. In effect, Washington has positioned itself as a mediator between the two warring sides. However, early indications suggest that expectations for a breakthrough may be misplaced.
Putin has already dismissed a joint US-Ukrainian proposal for a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, instead agreeing only to a pause in aerial strikes against energy infrastructure. How such a partial ceasefire would be implemented remains unclear, especially given that drone and missile attacks continue unabated. Meanwhile, Moscow has made it clear that the negotiations will not be easy, warning of “difficult discussions" ahead even as Washington optimistically speaks of “real progress."
The US seeks a broader ceasefire by April 20, but Russia remains focused on securing guarantees for its energy and agricultural exports. A potential revival of the Black Sea Grain Deal – brokered by Turkey in 2022 and abandoned by Moscow last year – has emerged as a bargaining chip for Putin. This agreement, which facilitated the safe passage of Ukrainian and Russian agricultural exports, is now a crucial element in Russia’s broader bargaining strategy.
Following the talks, the Russian delegation was reported to be in a good mood. Yet, it is clear that the primary focus of the talks was simply safety of navigation in the Black Sea, and a deal could be finalised in the coming days. There are no breakthroughs when it comes to a larger ceasefire.
A Fractured Transatlantic Front
The world witnessed as tensions between the US and Ukraine blew up, culminating in a public spat between President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Zelensky. If allies on the same side of the conflict struggle to maintain cohesion, one can only imagine the divide between Washington and Moscow.
Talks with Russia remain in their infancy, with Putin holding firm to maximalist demands—including the recognition of Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories in Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, and a formal guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO. Being on the winning side, with Ukraine’s position dwindling, the Russian President has no reason not to project strength. While Moscow’s position remains unwavering, Trump has watered down Ukraine’s position with his noncommittal treatment.
Donald Trump has held two long phone conversations with Vladimir Putin, and even suggested that the two leaders could visit each other’s nations soon. The Americans, focused on great power politics, are floating the idea of a US and Russia that work together on the global stage, hoping to reverse Russia’s strong pivot towards China. Russia is showering Trump with flattery while driving a hard bargain on business—and the strategy is working.
Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, who met Putin earlier in March, believes that Putin wants peace, that he does not plan to take all of Europe, and that “he is not a bad guy" but he’s “super smart". He said all this in a podcast with Tucker Carlson. Witkoff also went on to reveal that Putin gave him a portrait of President Trump from a leading Russian artist and that Putin went to Church to pray for Trump when there was an attempt on his life last year. All this left Trump touched, according to Witkoff.
These gestures suggest that Trump is pursuing a high-stakes diplomatic gamble – one that relieves pressure on Putin while exerting new demands on Ukraine. The US president has turned the screws on Kyiv, conditioning further American support on Ukraine ceding critical mineral resources and energy infrastructure to US ownership. However, whether this strategy will yield tangible results remains to be seen. If Trump’s overtures to Putin fail, he risks both personal embarrassment and a diplomatic impasse. If he refrains from pressuring Russia, Washington may find itself unable to secure a meaningful settlement for Ukraine, undermining American credibility.
Ukraine’s Dilemma: War Without Certainty
For Ukraine, the situation is fraught with peril. The battlefield remains active, yet American support – once a cornerstone of Ukraine’s resilience – has become increasingly unpredictable. In February, Washington voted against Ukraine in a UN resolution, aligning itself with the likes of North Korea, Belarus, and Russia in refusing to condemn Moscow. Even India, which has consistently abstained from such votes, did not go so far.
More consequentially, Trump has halted US military aid, a decision that dramatically weakens Ukraine’s position on the battlefield. With the US having supplied over half of Ukraine’s total foreign aid – including weapons, financial assistance, and humanitarian relief – Kyiv now faces a critical shortfall. Furthermore, Washington has paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine, further exacerbating its vulnerabilities.
These sudden American policy shifts have left both Ukraine and Europe scrambling to recalibrate their strategies, with transatlantic unity fractured. Moscow, sensing an opportunity, is leveraging this uncertainty, hoping that Western fatigue will ultimately force Kyiv into painful concessions.
Limits of Diplomacy
The war in Ukraine has entered a new and volatile phase—one where diplomacy is proving to be as contested as the battlefield. Russia continues to dictate the terms of negotiations, demonstrating both a willingness to fight and a capacity to sustain prolonged conflict. Ukraine, for its part, cannot afford to concede ground, yet finds itself increasingly constrained by dwindling manpower as well as firepower.
The stakes for Ukraine could not be higher. If Western support continues to erode, Kyiv may be forced into a settlement heavily skewed in Russia’s favour. Should the conflict persist without resolution, Ukraine’s economic and military endurance will remain under severe strain.
For now, one thing is certain: More negotiations have not brought more solutions—only more uncertainty. The illusion of diplomacy persists, but the war remains as intractable as ever.
Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
- Location :
- First Published: